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Strategic Forecasts

Use independent modeling to see supply deficits and stress-test your strategy. Position your business where the market is going.

Price Scenarios: 2025 - 2050

High Growth Base Case Low Growth

Demand Drivers

Key Forecast Insights

Price Outlook

  • Base case projects weighted sector CAGR through 2050
  • Supply constraints expected 2028-2032
  • Battery sector driving primary demand growth

Risk Factors

  • Technology substitution risk: Medium
  • Geopolitical supply risk: High
  • Recycling impact by 2035: 15-20%

Model the impact of various supply chain disruptions and market events on critical mineral prices and availability.

Export Controls & Dual-Use Materials

32 of 60 tracked minerals have dual-use classifications subject to export controls under Wassenaar Arrangement and national regulations. These materials are most vulnerable to supply disruptions from geopolitical events.

View full dual-use list in Impact Matrix

Scenario Impact Analysis

Key Findings
  • Lithium prices could increase 45-60% under severe supply constraints
  • Gallium most vulnerable to export restrictions (200% price spike possible)
  • Improved recycling could reduce virgin material demand by 35% by 2040
  • Alternative supply chains add 15-20% to costs but improve resilience