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Strategic Forecasts
Use independent modeling to see supply deficits and stress-test your strategy. Position your business where the market is going.
Price Scenarios: 2025 - 2050
High Growth
Base Case
Low Growth
Demand Drivers
Key Forecast Insights
Price Outlook
- • Base case projects weighted sector CAGR through 2050
- • Supply constraints expected 2028-2032
- • Battery sector driving primary demand growth
Risk Factors
- • Technology substitution risk: Medium
- • Geopolitical supply risk: High
- • Recycling impact by 2035: 15-20%
Model the impact of various supply chain disruptions and market events on critical mineral prices and availability.
Export Controls & Dual-Use Materials
32 of 60 tracked minerals have dual-use classifications subject to export controls under Wassenaar Arrangement and national regulations. These materials are most vulnerable to supply disruptions from geopolitical events.
View full dual-use list in Impact MatrixScenario Impact Analysis
Key Findings
- ▲ Lithium prices could increase 45-60% under severe supply constraints
- ● Gallium most vulnerable to export restrictions (200% price spike possible)
- ▼ Improved recycling could reduce virgin material demand by 35% by 2040
- ◆ Alternative supply chains add 15-20% to costs but improve resilience